For marketers, predicting the future isn’t easy. The proliferation of touch points, increased adoption of technology and reliance on word of mouth have made for fast-moving targets. That said, the one general consensus among marketers is that social media is going to be big business. Advertisers have already begun shifting their marketing dollars toward social media initiatives. In 2009 marketers spent $1.4 billion on U.S. social network advertising, and 2011 is expected to see a jump to $2.09 billion, according to analysis by Flowtown.
While the number of social platforms, networks and locations where marketers can place their dollars seems endless, it’s Facebook that dominates their interest. When you consider that Facebook boasts more than 550 million users, half of whom log in once a day, that’s not too surprising. But, what might be a bit of a shock is that 50% of all social media spending takes place on Facebook.
Amid all of this rapid, increased investment, the one topic not being talked about is what happens when the social media spending market is saturated? There are a finite number of users with a finite amount of time. Although platforms like Facebook continue to see increased growth and engagement, that growth will eventually plateau. As more and more marketers invest in social media, we’re eventually going to see a situation where there’s more interest in ads than there is ad space availability. The market will become over-saturated. When that happens, two very interesting things will occur:
- The cost for running those ads will increase. This is simply a case of supply and demand.
- Consumers will tune out these ads or move to other networks, platforms and locations. This is not unlike what happened to portal sites like Yahoo! or social sites like MySpace.
As a marketer, this creates a challenging situation to grapple with right now, and it’s only going to get worse. Social media is not a fad. People by nature are social and will continue to hunt for places where they can share interests with their friends. The brands that capitalize on this consumer behavior are the ones that have a solid social strategy in place, are actively engaged in the space and are measuring their efforts.
The simple reality is this: if you’re too late to the social party, you may not be able to get in.
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